With Christmas just three weeks away, snowy weather has already made an appearance in parts of the nation. But will it stick around until Dec. 25 for a white Christmas? And could more snow be on the horizon?
While it’s too early for a precise forecast, meteorologists suggest the current wintry pattern bodes well for a snowy holiday in some areas.
Judah Cohen, a meteorologist with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, shared a hopeful outlook for the Northeast: “I know many are wondering about the chances of a white Christmas. While I can’t predict snowfall three weeks out, I’m more optimistic about some northeastern U.S. cities experiencing a white Christmas than I’ve been in a long time.”
Forecasters note that accurate predictions are only possible about a week in advance, so a clearer picture will emerge as the holiday approaches, according to the National Weather Service.
What defines a white Christmas?
The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25, regardless of whether it actually snows that day.
America’s fascination with a white Christmas can be traced back to 1942, when Bing Crosby introduced the iconic song in the film Holiday Inn. Written by Irving Berlin, the song evokes nostalgia for idyllic Christmases of the past with its memorable lyrics, “just like the ones I used to know.” The theme was revisited in the 1954 film White Christmas, also starring Crosby.
Despite the song’s sentimental appeal, only 25% to 30% of the contiguous United States typically has snow cover on Christmas Day, according to AccuWeather. As of Wednesday, December 4, about 22.7% of the lower 48 states had snow cover, according to NOAA.
Where to Expect a White Christmas
Looking for a guaranteed white Christmas? Head to Fairbanks, Alaska, which has experienced snow on the ground every Christmas since weather records began, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Historically, northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, most of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and many areas in the Western mountains have a 90% or greater chance of a white Christmas. Based on past trends, some of the biggest cities with the highest likelihood of snow on Christmas Day include Minneapolis, Green Bay, Wisconsin, Buffalo, and Burlington, Vermont, according to AccuWeather.
Cities like Marquette, Michigan, and International Falls, Minnesota, have almost always had snow on the ground every Christmas, according to NOAA.
The map illustrates the historical likelihood of a white Christmas.
NOAA states that while the map represents the climatological probability of snow-covered ground on December 25, actual conditions this year may differ significantly. The weather patterns at the time will influence whether snow is on the ground or falls on Christmas Day. NOAA explained that “these probabilities serve as a guide to indicate where snow on the ground is more likely.”
