Even the typically confident Donald Trump appears unsettled by the volatile international landscape he’s set to inherit as president next month—a reality certain to bring new levels of unpredictability.
“The world seems to be going a little crazy right now,” Trump remarked on Saturday during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, as he returned to the global stage for another round of high-stakes diplomacy.
The dramatic fall of the al-Assad regime in Syria on Sunday has created a new and dangerous dynamic that will demand Trump’s attention, despite his stated desire to distance the U.S. from Middle Eastern conflicts. This development is likely to serve as an immediate test of his foreign policy vision and capabilities once he takes office in January.
“This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved,” Trump wrote in all caps on Truth Social on Saturday, as rebel forces advanced toward Damascus. His comment reflects a broader resistance to nearly two decades of U.S. military engagements in the Middle East and South Asia. However, as a global power within an interconnected world economy, and with adversaries eager to undermine U.S. influence, circumstances may arise where American interests compel Trump to engage—if not militarily, then diplomatically.
“When it becomes a national security interest and a threat to the United States, then we would get involved,” said Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin, a close Trump ally, during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
The sudden reshuffling of Middle Eastern geopolitics could also align with Trump’s broader international objectives, including his renewed confrontation with Iran. Over the weekend, the president-elect emphasized on social media how the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad represented a setback for Russia, potentially pressuring Vladimir Putin to scale back his involvement in Ukraine.
Trump’s first-term policies and his plans for a second term—outlined during his first major TV interview since the election, recorded Friday before Assad’s ouster—reveal his tendency to frame global crises as wins or losses for the United States. In the wide-ranging interview with Kristen Welker on NBC’s Meet the Press, which aired Sunday, Trump indicated that Ukraine should “probably” expect reduced aid under his leadership and linked continued U.S. participation in NATO to whether other member nations “pay their bills” and “treat us fairly.” He also reinforced his “America First” stance, previewing plans to prioritize the deportation of migrants with criminal records and to end birthright citizenship.
Trump Confronts Growing Global Challenges
Despite his focus on domestic priorities, Trump faces formidable international challenges, including those posed by the shifting dynamics in Syria and beyond.
The takeover in Syria, led by a rebel group once affiliated with al Qaeda and designated by Washington as a terrorist organization, introduces significant uncertainty about whether the fractured nation might again become a hub for terrorism that threatens U.S. security. Trump may soon need to decide whether to maintain the U.S. troop presence in Syria to counter any resurgence of ISIS, as President Joe Biden launched strikes on ISIS targets there on Sunday.
Assad’s removal from power also intersects with broader U.S. foreign policy priorities. For example, it weakens Russia, which had been a key supporter of Assad, maintaining its influence in the Middle East.
The fall of Assad also delivers another blow to Iran, which has already faced setbacks due to Israel’s recent campaigns in Lebanon against Hezbollah and in Gaza against Hamas. These defeats have strained Tehran’s proxies and left Iran’s leadership, amid Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s advanced age and impending succession issues, more vulnerable than in recent years. A perception of Iran’s weakness could embolden the Trump administration to adopt an even more hardline approach as Tehran continues to expand its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium.
The foreign policy challenges facing the incoming president span a wide arc, from the Middle East—including Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and Yemen—to Eurasia, where the war in Ukraine has triggered cascading crises. The conflict has now gone global, with North Korean ground troops making a shocking entry into a European land war. If, as some experts speculate, Russia is trading missile expertise or technology with Pyongyang in return, tensions with North Korea could escalate dangerously. Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly supplied Russia with drones and missiles, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
America’s struggles with Russia, North Korea, and Iran are compounded by their growing alignment with China in a loose but strengthening strategic partnership. Many of Trump’s incoming officials and allies have argued for reducing U.S. commitments in the Middle East and Europe to focus on countering China, which they see as the primary long-term threat. However, the rapidly evolving global situation may leave the president-elect with little choice but to engage in multiple regions simultaneously.
The world Trump will inherit in January is far more complex and perilous than during his first term. His unpredictability and criticism of U.S. allies in Europe and Asia have left many of those nations, now weakened by internal issues, preparing for new demands for increased defense spending—something their strained economies may struggle to accommodate.
Biden Leads for Now, But Trump Looms Ahead
Until January 20, Syria and its aftermath remain President Biden’s responsibility. Reacting to Assad’s fall, Biden pledged to work with the United Nations to help transition Syria to a sovereign, independent nation with a new constitution and government. He also ordered airstrikes against ISIS in central Syria, using a mix of B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets, and A-10 aircraft.
However, Trump, whose skepticism of Middle Eastern interventions stems from years of U.S. involvement in protracted conflicts, will soon take the reins. Historically, optimistic moments in the region have often proven fleeting. As Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics noted in an interview with CNN, while the fall of Assad marks a major setback for Russia and Iran, a Syria dominated by an Islamist Salafi movement is not a favorable outcome for the United States.
The swift collapse of Syria’s half-century Assad dynasty has left the nation deeply fractured along ethnic and religious lines, raising the specter of renewed civil war, a flood of refugees, and widespread humanitarian crises. Even if Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant rebel faction, manages to impose order, Syria’s devastated economy, ruined infrastructure, and displaced population will create lasting instability.
Trump must decide whether to maintain the U.S. military presence in Syria and engage in shaping the nation’s future—or leave a vacuum for adversaries to exploit. Syria offers no clear financial benefits for the U.S., and the traditional approach of promoting stability conflicts with Trump’s “America First” ethos.
However, the fall of Assad could bolster Israel’s security, a priority for Trump. A stable Syria could help block Tehran’s land routes for supplying weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, providing a strategic advantage for the U.S. and its allies.
