For nearly a decade, it was Russian military support that kept Bashar al-Assad in power.
But the events of the past 24 hours have changed everything.
Damascus has fallen, Assad has been ousted, and reports suggest he has fled to Moscow.
Citing a Kremlin source, Russian news agencies and state TV have confirmed that Russia granted Assad and his family asylum “on humanitarian grounds.”
In just a few days, the Kremlin’s efforts in Syria have unraveled dramatically, with Moscow unable to stop the turn of events.
The Russian foreign ministry issued a statement expressing “extreme concern” over the unfolding situation in Syria.
The fall of the Assad regime is a significant blow to Russia’s prestige.[ez-toc]
When Russia sent thousands of troops in 2015 to support President Assad, one of its key goals was to reassert itself as a global power.
It marked Vladimir Putin’s first major challenge to Western dominance outside the former Soviet sphere—and, at first, it seemed successful. In 2017, President Putin visited Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria, declaring the mission accomplished.
Despite consistent reports of Russian airstrikes causing civilian casualties, the Russian defense ministry grew confident enough to fly international media to Syria to observe the military operation. On one such visit, an officer told me that Russia was “in Syria for the long haul.”
However, Russia’s involvement was about more than just prestige.
In exchange for military support, the Syrian government granted Russia 49-year leases on the Hmeimim air base and the Tartous naval base.
These bases provided Russia with a crucial foothold in the eastern Mediterranean and served as key hubs for moving military contractors in and out of Africa.
A critical question now for Moscow is: what will become of these Russian bases in the wake of the regime’s collapse?
The statement announcing Assad’s arrival in Moscow also noted that Russian officials were in communication with representatives of “the Syrian armed opposition.”
The state TV anchor reported that opposition leaders had assured the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria.
Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed that the bases in Syria were placed “on high alert” but claimed that there is “no serious threat” to them at this time.
Bashar al-Assad was one of Russia’s closest allies in the Middle East, and the Kremlin had heavily invested in his regime. His overthrow is a major setback for Moscow, though they are trying to downplay it and find others to blame.
On Sunday night, Russian state TV’s flagship news program targeted the Syrian army, seemingly accusing it of failing to resist the rebels.
“Everyone could see that the situation was becoming more dire for the Syrian authorities,” anchor Yevgeny Kiselev said. “But in Aleppo, for example, positions were abandoned almost without a fight. Fortified areas were surrendered and then blown up, despite government forces being better equipped and outnumbering the rebels many times over. It’s a mystery!”
The anchor also suggested that Russia “had always hoped for reconciliation” between different factions in Syria.
He concluded with this remark:
“Of course, we are not indifferent to what is happening in Syria, but our priority is Russia’s own security – what is happening in the Special Military Operation zone [Russia’s war in Ukraine].”
This sends a clear message to the Russian public: despite nine years of resources invested in keeping Assad in power, the Kremlin now wants to shift focus to more pressing concerns.
