A coalition of rebels captured Syria’s capital, Damascus, on Sunday following a swift offensive that overthrew Assad’s regime and brought an end to his family’s 50-year rule.
Beijing:
Just over a year ago, China extended a warm welcome to Bashar al-Assad and his wife during their six-day visit, offering the Syrian leader a rare reprieve from the international isolation he had faced since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.
While attending the Asian Games, President Xi Jinping expressed China’s support for Assad in “opposing external interference” and assisting in Syria’s reconstruction, while Asma Assad was celebrated in Chinese media.
However, the sudden fall of the authoritarian leader, who had been strongly supported by Xi just last year, has dealt a significant blow to China’s diplomatic goals in the Middle East, revealing the limitations of its regional strategy, according to analysts.
A coalition of rebels captured Syria’s capital, Damascus, on Sunday following a rapid offensive that brought down Assad’s regime and ended his family’s 50-year reign.
“There has been an inflated perception of China’s ability to shape political outcomes in the region,” said Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
While the collapse of the Assad regime has weakened the influence of his main supporters, Iran and Russia, in the Arab world, it also poses a setback for China’s global ambitions, according to Fulton.
“Much of China’s international strategy has been based on its alliances with these countries, and their failure to maintain support for their key partner in the Middle East speaks volumes about their ability to achieve more beyond the region.”
TACKLING HOTSPOTS
After China brokered a deal between long-time rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese media celebrated Beijing’s growing influence in a region historically dominated by the United States.
Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, stated that the country would take on a constructive role in managing global “hotspot issues.”
China also mediated a truce between Fatah, Hamas, and other Palestinian factions earlier this year and has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza.
However, despite Beijing’s efforts, including inviting Middle Eastern leaders to Beijing and its Middle East envoy, Zhai Jun, engaging in shuttle diplomacy, Palestinians have not formed a unity government, and the conflict in Gaza continues.
“Assad’s sudden fall is not something Beijing wanted,” said Fan Hongda, a Middle East scholar at Shanghai International Studies University. “China favors a stable and independent Middle East, as instability or a region aligned with the U.S. does not serve China’s interests.”
China’s response to Assad’s downfall has been subdued, focusing primarily on ensuring the safety of Chinese nationals and calling for a “political solution” to bring stability back to Syria as soon as possible.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Monday seemed to leave the door open for engagement with the future Syrian government: “China’s friendly relations with Syria are for all Syrian people,” she said.
Chinese experts and diplomats suggest that Beijing will likely wait before officially recognizing a new government in Damascus. They believe China could contribute to reconstruction efforts using its expertise and financial strength, but its commitments will likely be limited due to China’s efforts in recent years to reduce financial risks abroad.
Syria joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2022, but Chinese investments have been scarce, partly due to sanctions.
“China is not in a position to replace the West as a major economic, diplomatic, or military partner in the region,” said Bill Figueroa, assistant professor at the University of Groningen and an expert on China-Middle East relations.
“China in 2024 has significantly less money than it did in 2013-2014 when the Belt and Road Initiative was launched,” Figueroa explained. “There is an evident shift toward safer investments and minimizing China’s risks overall.”
