With 10 Tests left in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, several teams are still vying for a place in the top two, but none have secured their spot yet.
With 10 Tests still to be played in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, several teams are still in the race for a top-two finish, though no team has secured a spot yet, according to ESPNcricinfo. South Africa, currently leading the standings with a percentage of 63.33, has two home matches against Pakistan left. Their recent 2-0 series win over Sri Lanka has strengthened their position. To guarantee a place in the final, they need to win at least one of their upcoming Tests against Pakistan. A 1-1 draw in the series would bring them down to 61.11 percent, with only India or Australia being able to surpass them.
If both of South Africa’s remaining Tests are drawn, they would finish with 58.33 percent. In this case, India would need to defeat Australia 3-2, and Australia would need to win both their Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass South Africa. Should South Africa lose the series 1-0, they would depend on Australia winning no more than two of their remaining five Tests or India securing no more than one win and one draw in their three remaining Tests against Australia.
Sri Lanka, currently at 45.45 percent, has two home Tests left against Australia. Even if they win both, they would only reach 53.85 percent and would still rely on other results. South Africa and one of India or Australia could surpass this percentage. For both teams to finish below 53.85 percent, Australia would need to win their series against India 2-1 with two draws, and South Africa would have to lose both Tests to Pakistan.
India, currently at 57.29 percent, has three away Tests remaining against Australia. To guarantee a place in the final, they need to win two matches and draw one, which would take them to 60.53 percent, ensuring at least second place behind South Africa. If India wins the series 3-2, they would finish with 58.77 percent, and Australia could still fall behind if they win 1-0 in Sri Lanka. However, if India loses the series 2-3, their percentage would drop to 53.51, allowing Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa to overtake them. In such a scenario, India would need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan and hope that Australia does not win more than one match in Sri Lanka.
Australia, with 60.71 percent, has three home Tests against India and two away Tests in Sri Lanka left. They need to win two of the three Tests against India to secure a spot in the final. Even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, a 3-2 series win over India would leave them at 55.26 percent, higher than India’s 53.51 percent and Sri Lanka’s 53.85 percent. If Australia loses 2-3, India would rise to 58.77 percent, and Australia would then need to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass India. Alternatively, they would need South Africa to secure no more than one draw against Pakistan, which would drop South Africa to 55.56 percent, a mark Australia can surpass with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan, currently at 33.33 percent, has a slim chance of qualifying, relying on South Africa losing an over-rate point. Even if Pakistan wins all their remaining matches, they would finish with 52.38 percent, just below South Africa’s 52.78 percent. If South Africa loses a match, they would fall to 52.08 percent. While it’s mathematically possible for Pakistan to finish second to either Australia or India, their chances are extremely remote.
New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, and West Indies are no longer in contention for a place in the final.
