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GenCast: Everything You Need to Know About Google’s New AI Agent That Masters 15-Day Weather Forecasts

The team found that GenCast outperformed the company’s previous AI weather program, which launched in late 2023 and provided a reliable 10-day forecast.

Google DeepMind has unveiled a new artificial intelligence tool, claiming it has unmatched capabilities in generating 15-day weather forecasts with exceptional speed and accuracy. In a recent report published in Nature Journal on Wednesday, the London-based company asserted that its new AI model could surpass the best global forecasts used to track dangerous storms and save lives.

GenCast: All About Google's New AI Agent That Aces 15-Day Weather Forecast

Ilan Price, the lead author of the study and a senior research scientist at DeepMind, highlighted that the new AI agent, ‘GenCast’, is significantly faster than traditional forecasting methods. “And itā€™s more accurate,” he added.

The team found that GenCast far outperformed the company’s previous AI weather program, which was launched in late 2023 and provided a reliable 10-day forecast.

“Iā€™m a little reluctant to say it, but it’s like we’ve made decades of progress in just one year. We’re seeing incredibly fast advancements,” remarked RĆ©mi Lam, the lead scientist on the earlier project and one of the co-authors of the new study.

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is regarded as a global leader in atmospheric prediction, consistently delivering the most accurate projections in comparative tests.

DeepMind’s new AI program was tested against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Ensemble Prediction System, which is used by 35 countries worldwide to produce weather forecasts.

In the study, the team compared how the 15-day predictions from both systems performed when forecasting a specific set of 1,320 global wind speeds, temperatures, and other atmospheric variables.

The results showed that DeepMind’s new AI agent outperformed the centre’s forecasts 97.2% of the time. The authors of the study argue that this accomplishment ā€œmarks the beginning of a new era in operational weather forecasting.ā€

“This is a significant achievement… an important step forward,” Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told The New York Times. In 2019, Dr. Emanuel and six other experts had highlighted the ā€œenormous socioeconomic benefitsā€ of extending reliable weather forecasts from 10 days to 15 days, as it could help mitigate the impact of extreme weather events.

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